CNYRUB | Wave analysis of the ticker

#CNYRUB. Also switched to the ending diagonal.

Replacing the dollar and the euro. A little over a year ago I showed a markup where I expected #CNYRUB to strengthen when the exchange rate reached 20. Then a little less than a year ago I wrote about the beginning of the devaluation of the ruble against the yuan, then the exchange rate was 8.6. Based on this analytics we built a trading plan in October. In April, the ruble depreciated again, according to the plan, to 12 for the yuan. Now the plan is for a second wave of revaluation at 6. Let’s break down the arguments for it and against it.

FOR: 1) Ratios within the diagonal. Usually waves “2” are 20% to waves “1” in duration, and they are usually from 66% in length. Our wave “2”, on the other hand, if completed last year, did not even come close to meeting any of these targets. Two norms were violated at once. 2) Sentiment. The current phase with the counter-attack and a new round of escalation hints at the end of a major negative wave. These are probably echoes of the wave “1” from the chart in the real world – a fractal lag. At the same time there have been no echoes of the wave “2”, yet – there should be a series of positive events for the Russian Federation, which the society will perceive as a victory. Right now, to put it mildly, the victory sentiment is a long way off. Anxiety reigns, which in some places is being replaced by panic. 3) The duration of the diagonal. Negative impulse (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) has been forming since approximately the 60’s and the wave (5) has been forming for 9-15 years, which gives the ruble place to maneuver – the end of [C] may happen within a few decades. The diagonal still has an opportunity to continue. 4) Yuan is now the main foreign trade currency for Russia. And it still hasn’t made new highs this year, unlike the EUR and USD to the ruble. Coincidence? Maybe it is. But maybe the sentiment should be watching and tracking now by this. And since there were no lows for the Yuan at the end of last year, that means the zigzag in the wave “2” cannot yet be completed and therefore a strengthening is more likely.

AGAINST: All arguments against it come down to propaganda narratives, which I would reduce to the phrase “the end of Russia”. This is an interesting liberal mantra that has been picked up by leftists. And in some respects they are undoubtedly right – it is true that in our lifetime the negative waves will come to an end, with intensity comparable and surpassing in sensation the civil war of the beginning of the last century. But not today, not tomorrow, and not even in a year. We still have at least five years to go.

P.S. I explained about the civil war and the collapse of the federation back in 2021 before all the events here: https://youtu.be/FrW2-lT1qHU (only in Russian). The lecture is good, if you study Wave Analysis and Socionomics I recommend it from the bottom of my heart.

#CNYRUB. Interestingly, yuan has not renewed its tops. And it is now the main currency for foreign trade activities. Sentiment indicator. Does it mean something? We’ll check it out soon…

Unlike most areas in the real world, the market often gives second chances. This is one of the reasons why most people in the market lose – they transfer their practices from everyday life to the stock market: they try to sell at the highest high and buy at the lowest low. Wavers know that prices often return almost completely to these highs and lows, and they make their trading and investment decisions there.

And that’s what happened right now. A month ago, I saw a pattern coming to an end and recommended exiting foreign currencies in favor of Russian stocks. And now I see the beginning of a new trend and advise to look for shorts of USDRUB, EURRUB and CNYRUB. Next week I will buy more June put options on Si.

In August I advised you to buy yuan, euros and dollars. In October I made a specific trading plan with expected structure, targets, entry and exit levels. A month ago, the plan was almost executed, and I began advising you to take profits slowly.

Today our plan is fully executed. And the Elliott Wavers will advise you to sell currencies – where have you seen that? Unless in this channel in mid-March 2022 :o) Now, in my opinion, it is time to withdraw completely from all foreign currencies – the optimal devaluation targets have been met.

What to move into? Crypto, Russian and US stocks, physical metals – there are posts about this here, read them. I do not have rubles, so I do not recommend you to be in rubles, either.

#CNYRUB. I am waiting for Yuan to reach the target area, from there shorting setups in Si and Eu will start to appear.

#CNYRUB. No change so far, waiting for the final movement up here.

#CNYRUB. No change so far, the devaluation is not complete, yet.

This is one of the most popular questions of late. Someone else remembered that in October I advised Russians on the contrary to buy it, as if I had changed my mind :o) I had not changed my mind – that was true, I advised it when sentiment prompted me (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3148). And as you can see from that and this forecast, everything has already come true.

Probably within a week or two the revaluation of the ruble will begin. Well, how can I advise you to buy currency in these conditions? Wait for the exchange rate of 6.5 rubles per yuan, if you really need to.

Don’t forget that China (like Russia a year ago) – is a semi-periphery of the so-called Western world, which means that its elites benefit from the cheap national currency – they pay salaries and taxes in it, and earn in hard currency. Profit! The situation is changing, the oligarchs are slowly being dispossessed, but this process may take years or even decades. Will you be able to hold on to Chinese cash for that long? And if China gives it up in favor of CBDC? That’s why I advise using cash dollars and, to a lesser extent, cash euros for savings for now.

#CNYRUB. Also no change. Here I would like to see a movement up before strengthening.

#CNYRUB. Also locally I would like to see it at 12, but a little more globally – at 7.

#CNYRUB. Similar to the dollar against the ruble in expectations. I would like to see another movement up, but sentiment says we’re going down.

Two months ago I advised you to get rid of rubles urgently, at least in favor of the yuan, if you do not have accounts in foreign currencies in foreign banks (https://t.me/waves89/4353). At that time I showed a trade with p/l 5 against the ruble, and it had already passed 2 stop values from the entry. This means that if you close a third of it now, the deal will be at breakeven automatically.

As for buying any world currency without margin against the ruble, we should definitely keep them for now. The dollar to at least 76, the euro to 81, the yuan to 12. Some options are possible from these targets, but there is a devaluation with no alternative before them.

Two months ago I showed you the global picture of the Chinese currency pair against the Russian currency (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3054). There you saw the forming wave [b] of “2”. And here it is now in front of you in detail. A double zigzag is formed in it in phase “c” of (x), according to the main plan.

But can there be a downward exit from this triangle, as was recently the case for Si, Eu and EURRUB? Judging by the sentiment – very unlikely. The ruble showed its strongest values ​​for the coming months. Therefore, I suggest waiting for the completion of the triangle, and go long with p/l around 5.

#CNYRUB. Someone asked about the current view – it is directed upwards.

The forecast that was given in early March is coming true (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2767). China does not even intercede for itself, not to mention Russia. This happens because public consciousness has not opened a window of opportunity for geopolitical action, yet. It will open after the USDCNY pair passes the phase “3” of (3) of [5] – Prechter Point.

The yuan will begin to strengthen earlier, because the wave (2) is already coming to an end, read the details in the forecast from the day before yesterday. Well, the ruble against all currencies is already in a positive corrective trend, in which the wave [a] of “2” has just been set. This means that in the near future the ruble will begin to weaken into the wave [b] of “2”, and then strengthen into [c] of “2”. Probably, the end of “2” of (5) in USDRUB will coincide with the wave “2” of (3) in USDCNY.

Thus, if you have already taken yuan in your portfolio, then you will need to dump them when you approach the first target zone. And wait for the second target area for the acquisition of the Chinese currency.

#CNYRUB. Apparently, on small degrees the triangle (x) of [b] of “2” develops. Or the ending diagonal (v) of [a]. The global picture is available in the @eightyninewaves channel.