EURRUB | Wave analysis of the ticker

With this post I want to confirm the relevance of my expectations of ruble strengthening, read more about it in the three-part overview from a month ago. In brief, I’m still waiting for 80 rubles per euro as a minimum target without updating the historical high. And it’s quite likely that my expectations will finally materialize by the end of the fall. So right now, in my opinion, it’s better to be in bonds or bank deposits, among all possible investment strategies for Russians in the financial markets.

#EURRUB. As for the euro, I have an impulse count against the ruble. The euro is likely to continue losing ground against the dollar.

The dynamics of a country’s currency usually reflects the mood in its society. For the society devaluation is always a negative, despite the possible growth of the economy and increase of its competitiveness due to depreciation of the national currency. Revaluation, on the contrary, is a positive, although it more often leads to recession.

If you owned a drilling rig in the north, would you want a rate of 1000 or 10 per euro? And what if you worked on that rig?

The task of central banks and economic blocs of all governments is to balance the interests of the export-oriented elite and the working class. One needs economic growth to earn money, the other needs low inflation and a strong national currency. Otherwise, there will be hunger riots or intra-elite arguments. This is how the exchange rate works in macroeconomics. There is also purchasing power parity, when for 1 dollar in Russia you can buy a Big Mac or a liter and a half of gasoline, and in the EU only a cheeseburger or a third of a liter of gasoline, but about this another time ….

So, the Euro/Ruble exchange rate is the ratio between the sentiments of half a billion Europe and 150 million Russia. De facto, these territorial entities are in a state of hybrid warfare, which is part of the US-PRC confrontation. And which of the parties will win tactical victory and which will win strategic victory can be seen from the EURRUB chart. So, based on the methodology of socionomics and WA, 2 years ago I predicted the completion of the wave “1” and a pullback into the wave “2” on the pair.

To be continued…

#EURRUB. 86 is a minimum target for strengthening.

#EURRUB. It looks like a downward impulse. But for now it’s more of a hope.

The main difficulty in forecasting the ruble exchange rate is the fact that the impact of ruble appreciation on the economy can be both positive and negative, and depends on the specific conditions in which the country is located. And since Wave Analysis is the analysis of sentiment and wave structure, the Elliott Wavers have to allow a variability on the medium-term horizon, it won’t be possible to predict now whether the ruble appreciation will be positive or negative. While the forecasts for the long-term simply come true – there will be 150 and then strengthening by times.

As for the current exchange rate, it’s certainly favorable for the state, given the multiple decline in gas exports and not particularly rising oil prices. And the budget must be filled with rubles. The only external factor that will influence the exchange rate in the medium-term is the oil price. If Brent oil will be at 150, the ruble will be at 45-70 per euro. But whether it will be at 45 or 70 is an internal question, a sentiment issue. It’s also possible that both of these forecasts are correct. One will reflect the internal rate and the other one the external one. An example of such an economic model has been realized in Cuba, but it’s unlikely.

I continue to expect dynamic appreciation, as indicated a month ago for the short-term, on a horizon of months: https://t.me/waves89/5425. But there is an impulse here instead of a diagonal in the wave (v), but this fact doesn’t affect the further forecast. I continue to take short positions in put options on Si.

#EURRUB. I’m not changing the count yet either.

#EURRUB. I think the devaluation is complete. It’s necessary to take put options on SI. By the way, there is a nuance with SI – I’ll show you.

Unfortunately, I can’t hit to the tip of the Russian ruble depreciation trend yet. Last month I considered a double zigzag down and an ending diagonal slightly up. The diagonal was the alternative, and that is what is now being implemented. It’s funny, but it’s good. I’ll explain why.

The thing is that the double zigzag could only send the rate to the area of 60-70, but not to the renewal of the bottoms of the last year. But the ending diagonal may easily give out a sharp impulse downwards similar to the last year’s wave [c] of “2”, and then we will see the ruble at 45. To summarize, I’m still confident that the ruble will strengthen in the summer, and my actions are based on this forecast: I buy stocks, but I don’t buy foreign exchange. I’m not sure about the scale of this strengthening.

In many ways 70 or 45 will depend on the price of gas and oil at that moment, and on the sentiment in the Russian society. Other factors like SWIFT and its disconnection, switching to yuan or dirhams, sanctions and counter-sanctions, “left turn” or continuation of the current course on private initiative, and the outcome of the battlefield situation will all be determined by sentiment and the price of hydrocarbons.

#EURRUB. Looking forward to strengthening this week, but no longer hopeful =)

#EURRUB. Similarly dollar/ruble, I want another downward impulse.

#EURRUB. Similar to the dollar/ruble.

I continue to bet on ruble strengthening. It should continue now or in the first half of the summer, based on the sentiment and wave structure.

But I do not observe any adequate entry points into the shorts yet, I just advise to smoothly buy June PUT options and convert foreign currency savings to the stocks, including Russian ones.

I have accumulated a few million rubles from speculation, and I partially channeled them into investments in commodity and technological companies, and I am preparing the second part for withdrawal by SWIFT or via crypto. And I am not satisfied with exchange rate higher than 70 per euro. But I dream, of course, of 45 :o)

#EURRUB. So far, everything is unchanged. You can short if the length of the stop suits you.

#EURRUB. Expect a minimum of 75 and maybe much lower.

#EURRUB. Also, everything is similar to dollar/ruble, only there are no higher targets.

#EURRUB. 88800 – a correction or positive trend will possibly start from this level.

#EURRUB. Got stop on entry on the small degrees, the picture remains unchanged on the higher degrees, and I’ll try to short again, if the set-up with the diagonal will be again.

#EURRUB. Such a risky story, but there is little hope that it will work.

#EURRUB. I will add into the short on the market prices tomorrow if nothing changes.