RGBi | Wave analysis of the ticker

The 2019 forecast, last updated on April 26 last year, is being executed (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2888). You can see the power of Elliott Waves in capable hands – the forecasts for the government bond index are being executed for years and updated on the 26th every few months.

I recently cross-referenced all the sociometers for Russia: https://vk.com/wall-124328009_25745. And there I explained why the target for the wave (5) is zero. But not immediately, but through local growth and through the strengthening of the ruble. This trend can be seen here as well. The final movement is expected into the area of 140.

You still have an opportunity to exit bonds at good prices, I recommend you do so. Where to exit? For now, you can get into rubles and Russian stocks, hedging all that with call options. After the ruble strengthens in March and April, I would recommend cash currency.

In the summer, I predicted a correction within the wave [ii], which started successfully and possibly continues (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2973). Then the idea was given to close positions on the debt market of the Russian Federation.

Now we need to slowly think about buying public debt. Personally, I am waiting for the blue area on the chart to enter the position, until then I consider purchases not very justified for myself – commodity stocks are more interesting.

#RGBi. I have not updated the OFZ index for a long time, there are too many options. If you synchronize with the ruble of waiting, then it will go to overlow. And if with the RTS, then maybe go to overhigh. There will be certainty – I will write.

It’s no secret that RGBi is very similar to RTSi, and that all the way to the beginning of this year, it repeated every movement of oil. In other words, the general sentiment in these sociometers is obvious. Of course, there are correlations when, for example, in 2020, oil went to minus values, or two years later, when the domestic fund almost reset to zero.

Nevertheless, the high degrees here are, if not general, then related. On the chart there is the hypothesis of a triangle.

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#89waves

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#RGBi TF: 1D

Yesterday I sold the remaining OFZs and bought more stocks of Gazprom, as I planned earlier (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2888). Domestic bonds were an amazing investment in terms of profitability, but now we need to look for new ideas.

Yes, I think that the domestic stock market is quite possibly the next capital-raising idea. I don’t recommend Yandex only, for the rest there will soon be markups in the public domain.

Let me remind you that RTSi and RGBi rise and fall synchronously, the difference is only in the wave structure. Therefore, do not forget about risk and money management. Growth is not guaranteed, but very likely. Especially in rubles.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

Two months ago, I showed you how the Elliott Wave Principle works on the example of the Russian government bond price index (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2731). Now the forecast, which was given 3 years ago, has been fully fulfilled: the index has fallen by 40% from the ending diagonal. It turned out, with an accuracy of form and targets, first to predict growth twice, and then one fall. That’s what Wave Analysis is all about, even if you don’t trade or invest.

A month ago, I advised premium subscribers to buy back domestic bonds, now I am changing my recommendation to take profits. The minimum growth targets have been fulfilled, only the wave structure remains.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

1) On the first chart from June 2019, you see an assumption that an a-b-c zigzag is forming in an upward direction, targets are set at historical highs.
2) On the second chart from April 2020, this zigzag is nearing its end. You remember that c waves always break through the end of a in single zigzags.
3) The highs are fulfilled, the index reaches 157, and the third chart already suggests the development of the so-called initials waves [i]-[ii] in the downward direction with targets at 135 and below.
4) In November 2020, on the fourth chart, a confirmation level is set for a further decrease in the index, it will be indicated in green.
5) By March of last year, on the fifth chart, this collapse in the wave [iii] happens, and I put forward an assumption about a correction in the wave [iv].

#RGBi TF: 4H 6) The sixth chart from June 2021 is needed in the chronology to show the hypothesis about the shape of the correction in the form of the wave [iv]. In addition, fourth waves usually shift trend channels.
7) In August 2021, on the seventh chart, this triangle [iv] completed, and further impulse decline was predicted from 145.
8) Which lasted the entire end of last year, as can be seen in the chart No. 8, but did not have a pronounced acceleration.
9) At the beginning of 2022, the index was already worth 129, and I predicted a decrease into the area of ​​110.
10) Now the targets are met, but the structure is not yet fully staffed. And this means that domestic bonds will continue to decline for the time being with breaks for corrections.

All these forecasts are available in all social networks of the project. Updates on the index are released on the 26th of each month, which eliminates the possibility of falsifying the result.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

The hypothesis about the cost of domestic bonds is 3 years old (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2588). But in December, I made an erroneous assumption about the beginning of a significant correction in the wave 2 , and this assumption did not come true. The mistake was that the wave 1 on another fast sociometer, the ruble, will be placed only at three-digit exchange rates. And here, for some reason, I decided without a reason that RGBi could overtake the ruble, although all the way behind it for years.

#RGBi TF: 1D, 4H

I think that right now is a great time to buy OFZ in order to return 52,000 rubles of personal income tax. Almost 9% per annum in rubles, the current yield and an upward forecast for the cost of RGBi (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2588).

It is clear that you don’t need to buy on all your savings, but it is very reasonable to buy our OFZ for 400,000 rubles for the purpose of tax deduction for this year. Well, if you don’t want to keep this in our portfolio, then in the spring we will sell at a higher price, which is also not bad.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

Only the lazy one is now not talking about the fall of Russian bonds. Could this fall have been predicted in advance? In 2.5 years? Wave analysis coped with this task perfectly (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2536). Can your forecasting method boast something similar? :o)

Already this year or at the very beginning of the next, it would be logical to see a significant correction of the index by 7% or more in the upward direction. I suspect this will miraculously coincide with the wave e on SI and USDRUB. Well, the further forecast is sad – the largest crisis in recent history.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

The execution of the forecast continues, and finally the impulse is fully completed from July 2020 (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2486).

Are you already thinking about getting out of bad low-risk investments in Bitcoin and the Chinese market? Fine! This means that the sentiment has also formed, and soon a correction will begin within the wave 2 into the area [iv] of 1 . I have highlighted this area for you in blue.

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#RGBi TF: 1H

As expected a month ago, the ending diagonal was formed in the wave (c) of [y] (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2421). And this is a trend reversal model that allows you to build a trading plan.

Today I will finally take a short on the index with a stop-loss at the orange level, to cancel this diagonal. For the Ri futures, the stop will be around 189700.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

Now for sure zigzags in the sideways direction have confirmed the hypothesis with the development of the wave [iv] (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2365). It has already fulfilled the minimum necessary rules for its completion, therefore, immediately after the elections it is likely that the phase of the decline in the value of the ruble against the currencies of the world will begin.

Well, bonds may start falling earlier, if the market does not go according to the gray scenario and does not delay the beginning of something bad until around October.

As for the practical recommendation, I completely went out of the domestic funds and the ruble. I expect at least a very significant correction in our market.

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#RGBi TF: 1H

Everything is as predicted earlier (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2328). The wave [iv] has begun or is ending, after which the decline in bonds will resume.

From a practical point of view, for the average person, this index is important because it shows the amount of currency in the Russian economy. And to say simply, the less dollars in the Russian economy, the more expensive it is and the ruble is ultimately cheaper.

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#RGBi TF: 2H

I expect the next phase of federal loan bond’s depreciation in the summer, instead of the depreciation phase of the ruble, according to the forecast (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2280). Probably, the wave [iv] takes the shape of a triangle; only it suites to the alternation to [ii].

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#RGBi TF: 4H

According to our scenario bonds go (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2230). And, probably, the wave [iv] will come to an end during June. From a practical point of view, for the average person, this means that the devaluation of the ruble will resume in the summer. And we will see the extremes for the pair and the brightest negative events towards the end of the year or at the beginning of 2022, when the wave 3 begins.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

How could be else, when the Wave analysis methodology works? Make sure (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2149). A month ago, I assumed the beginning of the wave [iv] and so far this is happening. And while this is happening, the ruble and the funds are unlikely to fall.

I am waiting for a sideways or upward shift of the red channel, this is the norm for wave [iv]. And also, according to the norm, it should be equal in duration to the wave [ii], so we still have several months of stability – an excellent chance to buy the euro against the ruble.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

Everything is strictly according to the plan (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2086). And the minimum required structure of the wave [iii] is fulfilled. Sentiment directly screams – no one needs our bonds, except Sberbank, new sanctions, endless horror and blah blah… It’s time to buy bonds, therefore, with an eye, if not to break the downtrend, then to a significant rollback in the wave [iv] or 2 of ED (5).

Of course, I will not do this. I follow the index for the sake of clarifying the forecast for domestic assets and currency.

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#RGBi TF: 2H

Into the hell, as previously planned (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2038). In the coming month I expect that this trend will only intensify in the framework of (iii) of [iii]. The acceleration may be driven by the drop of SPX and oil.

The alternative option with the ending diagonal on the chart is just for every case, I have not seriously considered it for several months.

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#RGBi TF: 4H

Unfortunately, the worst expectations are justified with the index falling to the floor right away, without any ending diagonals (look update from December, 26 in my telegram channel). I’m even afraid to imagine what event is preparing for Russia in 2021. Death of the first person? Civil War? – you can guess endlessly. It is only clear now that 2020 was a good year.

Following the index, the ruble and RTS have already crawled. If the oil also crashes into the wave 2 , then it will be completely sad…

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#RGBi TF: 4H