USDTRY | Wave analysis of the ticker

The lira has completely fulfilled my 2019 forecast (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/1157; https://t.me/eightyninewaves/1262). Then we were waiting for an upward exit from the triangle “4”, and then all the way exactly got into all corrections and new phases of devaluation (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/1992).

Now the wave [iii] of “5” might be completed, and I am slowly starting to wait for the trend change to be positive for the Turkish economy. But not definitively yet, but only as part of the wave [iv].

The ambitions of the Turkish leadership and the legacy of the Ottoman Empire make this country very interesting to analyze (but not to live in) – it is an example of an alternative path for Russia. So on the 5th, I try to update the Turkish lira to the U.S. dollar for you here. You can see how Elliott Waves forecasts come true in both directions here (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2853). On the last screenshot there is the minimum target for the current devaluation – 18.4, with the price then at 14.7. Now this prediction is also fulfilled, and the lira is heading towards the optimal target of 20.6.

Turkey, Russia and Ukraine are now showing roughly the same waves of change in public sentiment. But in Ukraine the cyclical negative “V” is almost finished – the current scale of events in the real world confirms it. Russia is developing a relatively controlled ending diagonal, the completion of which will probably be less destructive than in the Ukrainian example, but will be felt in the society in a similar way. And Turkey, because it still has a different (although similar in characteristics and degree) wave developing – the country was neither part of the USSR, nor part of the RE, is going only through a phase of the early 90s, if translated to our way of thinking.

And the Turks will not be able to skip the wave [3] of “V” without cataclysm, as you have already guessed. Crises develop in such waves, which lead to defaults and/or hyperinflation. Usually, the country finds an external enemy. And you, people of another faces type, are very easily mistaken for that very enemy. So, going on an all-inclusive vacation at the expense of a good exchange rate and an ever-decreasing national currency is ok. Staying and buying real estate is not ok, don’t confuse tourism with emigration.

You have seen how exactly forecasts have come true for the last 3 years with a monthly update of the Turkish lira, which are released on the 5th of each month (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3073). And there is no magic here, only correctly placed high degrees.

The Elliott Wave pattern always starts from high to low, even when you end up trading 5-minute charts. Because it is the high picture that determines the expectations at the lower degrees, and the internal structure acts as an important but auxiliary filter.

Now in Turkey, negative waves continue to develop since the time of the Ottoman Empire, a supercyclical wave (c) is being formed in which we observe the final phase of the cyclical “V”, whose markings are on the chart. The countries that lost in the Second World War in the 50s of the last century went through the same phase, it is in order to understand the scale of the upcoming shocks in Turkey. Currency devaluation and loss of control over certain territories, external control and loss of sovereignty, nuclear bombings and civil wars – these are the ends of supercyclical waves.

The good news is that until the end of the negative cycle there is still from 3 years, and the consequences will manifest themselves for decades. There is time to make some decisions.

#USDTRY. The target was fulfilled on all quotes, now the forecast is officially successful.

I consider the forecast about reaching historical highs fulfilled (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3030). Time to take profits, completely close positions. At the end of [iii], the masses are expected to rage – protests similar to 2011 in the Russian Federation. On them wave [iii] can stretch for a long time, but there is no desire to trade it.

As for the outcome of political instability in Turkey, nothing bad is expected for Erdogan – the scale of the ending wave is not enough for a coup d’état. The maximum is to loosen the nuts a little and complete the series of special military actions in neighboring countries..

As expected a month ago, the lira continued to weaken from the wave [4] (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2984). Now it remains to update the historical maximum and go into a deep correction [iv] in order to fulfill the global forecast (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2853).

At the end [iii], the sentiment suggests a seething of the masses – protests, the rise of nationalism and the risk of a coup d’état. Turkey will not be the most interesting country for russo refugiado – you shouldn’t buy real estate there :o)

You and I managed to take the entire upward trend in the weakening of the lira (see for yourself, I update it in the public domain on the 5th of each month) https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2853. With what I congratulate us with terrible power! Soon it will be time to take profits and wait for a rollback in the wave [iv] to re-enter a long position against the lira.

I placed the takes in a grid into the area of ​​18.5-20.5 liras per dollar, and moved the stops for each entry from this pyramid to breakeven.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 4H

As expected a month earlier, the wave v began to stretch (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2906). And in the summer, the lira will renew its historical highs. Longs must be kept.

Some analysts tell us how what is happening near the borders of Turkey in Syria is fundamentally different from what is happening near the borders of Russia in Ukraine? Do not forget to tell about special millitary operation in Nagorno-Karabakh and Palestine, it will be interesting.

#TRY #USDTRY TF: 1H The masses of the people in all capitalist societies are told that they are special by the fact of their birth. This is how people become led, this is called nationalism. The national idea does not work very well on positive waves of social mood, when everyone is getting richer. Only on large negative waves of public mood, when crises begin, do these special people manage to inspire the image of an enemy, allegedly because of which they live poorly. To suggest that he is external, not class.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 1H

The national currency of Turkey, the lira, always follows the arrows (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2853). And now the structure for stretching the wave v of (v) into the area of ​​about 20 liras per dollar has fully matured.

It is unlikely that this will happen due to the renewed bombing of the Bedouins in the desert… It seems that Erdogan intends to significantly expand his sphere of influence, taking advantage of what cannot be named. One can only guess in Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria or in Ukraine a new round of aggravation will begin, but it will definitely begin.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 1H

The lira is very easy to predict, the chronology of successful analytics is already more than two years old (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2753). The only time for all the time in November last year the markings were clarified without changing direction.

The narrow-minded will say that it’s easy to predict what is always getting cheaper. But how will they respond to the fact that the WA methodology allowed them to get into each of the significant corrections?

So filigree to get into the market allows socionomics – the analysis of sentiment. Falsification of the result is excluded, the lira is updated on the 5th day of each month in all social networks of the project

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 1H

All two and a half years that I have been labelling this pair, it always walked along the arrows. What’s the secret? In addition to the technical (graphical) part of the Wave analysis, I also pay attention to the sentiment.

The devaluation of the lira will continue in 2022, despite the fact that the dollar itself is also expected to devalue. This is the most eloquent answer to the question about the simultaneous fall of RUB and DXY.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 1D

As you know, lira always follows the arrows, not deviating anywhere. So this time it happened (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2553). As you can see, the targets of the upward movement have been fully fulfilled, but the structure has not been reached, yet. This means that in the near future we will see several significant corrections in the pair before continuing the depreciation of the lira.

I exited the long last week completely with a fat profit. I also advise you to do the same. You can try to return to the position on the wave (iv) or [iv].

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 4H

Despite the fact that the couple is moving inexorably towards the previously set targets, I decided to refine the calculation in order to harmonize it with the theory of socionomics (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2512).

So far, nothing can prevent the upward movement, the weakening of the lira. Critical levels for placing stop-losses are marked with orange and red colors on the chart. I hold USDTRY long and continue to pyramid.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 1D

A month ago, I recommended entering a long of pair by buy-stop orders on the breakdown of the red channel upwards, and this entry is executed (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2420). Now, if the complication of the wave 2 does not happen suddenly, the movement to the levels from 10 lira per dollar is open.

I recommend either a partial fix of the long, I plan to close half of the entrance soon; or move the position to breakeven.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 4H

And how can you not get bored when the pair has been strictly following my forecasts for 2 years now (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2381)? And it would be fine if only the upward movements would come true, but the Wave analysis also hits the correction perfectly.

The wave 2 continues to develop in its pre-final stage. According to the norms, usually the second waves correct at least 38% of their first, especially when the correction is sharp. Therefore, I would recommend buying a pair (not a lira!) by buy-stop order to confirm the completion of the double zigzag. This location is indicated by a green level on the chart.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 4H

Whoever has fixed a profit at the very high knows the wave analysis (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2339). And now it is waiting for the area of ​​blue fibs to set the position.

There is nothing more to add to what was said above, except that if the market goes up without us, then you should not join to the movement by the buy-stop – then the complication of the wave 2 to a flat is possible and very likely.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 4H

The lira has fulfilled almost the entire structure for devaluation since the 2008 crisis, everything is predicted (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2291). Now there is a good chance both to go into a deep correction 2 of (5) of [3] and into a very deep correction [4] for a couple of years.

On the other hand, no one canceled the extension of (5) of [3] either, so 1/4 or 1/3 of the volume can be held in the long with a stop in breakeven. And if you want to add, then not earlier than the area of ​​gray fibos from the second chart.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 2D, 2H

A month ago the minimum target was set to update ATH for the pair (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2250) and this target was fulfilled. It is necessary to close part of the long position now and move the rest to breakeven and wait for extension of the wave (5), as is often the case in similar situations.

Erdogan wants to lower the rate and such an alternative view of macroeconomics has not benefited yet anyone in the short term. If this happens, the stretch of (5) will be enormous.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 4H

And this time the waves also worked again (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2189). Falsification of the result is excluded due to the system according to which each asset is updated here once a month on a certain date.

What else to write? We are waiting for the stretching of the wave (5) and funny headlines in the media, which will find the very event that led to the devaluation retroactively.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 3H

Otherwise, how else to explain the fact that he removed the head of the Central Bank accurately at 62% fibo to the initial wave 1 , which we designated here a month ago (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2110). Certainly not by the fact that Wave Analysis works better than news and fundamental analysis, is able to predict trends before they start and bright explanatory events.

I expect the development of an upward trend on the pair, I will add to the long on the wave [ii] in the form of a flat. An example of how WA trading allows you to build a pyramid with potential exponential profit’s growth and fixed risk.

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#TRY #USDTRY TF: 4H