USDUAH | Wave analysis of the ticker

On the 10th of every second month I usually update hryvnia, but in May I decided to skip this update and did not want to write this post. And I wouldn’t have, but you asked a lot of questions during my vacation… I’ll try to be as gentle as possible.

As you know, the currency is one of the fastest indicators of public mood in a country. When it collapses, the mood in the country is, to put it mildly, not very good, and the stronger the reaction in society to the collapse, the greater the degree of the wave completes.

In my previous updates based on these simple principles of socionomics I first managed to predict a military conflict and devaluation to 40 from 25, then a strengthening and freezing of the conflict along the autumn borders. Now it’s time for the March forecast to come true and once again go to historical highs.

What does this mean for Ukraine in the context of the now discussed topic of the counterattack? The forecast is disappointing according to WA. The conflict is likely to remain the same along the current borders for the time being. I still do not expect an increase in its intensity.

I updated senior degrees on hryvniaa month ago (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3368). Spoiler: the forecast from 2019 continues to come true there – yes, the Elliott Waves are still working fine, but still not 146% exactly. On the higher degrees you can see that there is a final wave of devaluation left as part of a cyclical negative “IV”. Let’s take a closer look at the picture.

An exit from the triangle “4” has been developing for one and a half year, the movement is marked here on the chart. As you can see, it is already going with a fade characteristic of the ending diagonals – the final part of the impulse. According to my conservative view, within a year the hryvnia negativity may end and revaluation will start at least one and a half times against the current dollar prices.

But do I recommend to be in hryvnia? Absolutely not! It’s too early, we have to wait for the end of the expected pattern first.

“Eh, I wish the WA could predict the end of hostilities now!” – a commenter wrote to me in October (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3132). That was when I wrote that the conflict would be frozen, while “political experts” were predicting the defeat of one side by the end of last year. Did it come true? Listen to the Elliott analysts – we analyze the dynamics of public sentiment, which is at the head of political action, among other things.

And according to these dynamics, for Ukraine, as I said earlier, the final division of the devaluation of the hryvnia and the inferno left, then the real establishment of the Ukrainian state will begin. I say this with certainty, because the last forecast about the beginning of this military actions back at the beginning of 2022, exactly came true (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2672). Similarly, on October 10, 2021, a devaluation from 40 to 26 was predicted, and then came true (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2517). I was helped to do all this by Wave Analysis and the triangle “4” hypothesis I put forward here back on July 10, 2019 (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/730).

What continues to happen now is the realization of all my predictions about Ukraine – all that remains is to fix the status quo on paper, and then everything will completely come true. The future fate of Ukraine and Ukrainian society, after the final movement of hryvnia to 40, looks very optimistic. But Russia will go through similar events of the end of the wave “IV” only in a few years – get ready.

A month ago I wrote about the imminent end of the hryvnia devaluation, the freezing of the military conflict, and the beginning of the negotiation process (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3173). Of the three predictions, only two have definitely come true so far – the hryvnia has strengthened by almost 10%, and the front has stabilized. “The grain deal” is the first part of the third forecast coming true. And the ruble has fallen by almost 10%. Isn’t it convenient that the hryvnia forecasts are released here on the 10th of each month? No falsification!

And how do I get so accurately into the forecasts for the real world by looking at the chart? The secret is that a true Elliott Wave analyst analyzes not only the chart, but even more importantly, the dynamics of social mood. And it was the social mood a couple of months ago that started ringing about negative developments for Russia, and the soon to be positive trend for Ukraine.

So what’s next? The candle on the tether to hryvnia chart hints at a vector of the pair’s movement soon, but through at least a couple more lows to the dollar. I just want to draw your attention to the fact that according to the forecast, not so much the hryvnia should become stronger, but the public mood (it should form a positive trend, we can already see it). This positive mood may develop, for example, under the protection of Poland – then the hryvnia will eventually cease to exist, but the trend can be traced on the PLNUSD pair.

Europe needs periphery with cheap labor force to preserve its union, so now I predict, immediately after the peace talks, industrialization of western Ukraine at the expense of the EU, and eastern Ukraine at the expense of Russia. For Russia, this could be called both reparations and, more likely, investments to the regions in need.

#USDUAH. Who still thinks that the currency reflects anything but sentiment, I advise them to visit my blog on smartlab https://smart-lab.ru/blog/853257.php, and read the comments (it’s in Russian only, but you can use translator)- 5% strengthening since the forecast, under which commenters wrote that the hryvnia has no bottom. Unfortunately only, the whole negative trend is not over, yet… But close…

A month ago, I wrote to you about the imminent end of hostilities in Ukraine (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3132). At that time, Zelenskiy was not going to communicate with Putin, but now he has softened his rhetoric and demands compensation for damages instead of reparations. The Russian military, in turn, is undertaking a negative attack on more advantageous positions, as part of a goodwill gesture. This means that the acute part of this tragedy is really coming to an end. And I’m very happy about it!

As for the hryvnia as a sociometer, it practically completed all the divisions in the upward direction, which were written about many times earlier, on the 10th of almost every month. And now competent actions of the Ukrainian authorities can stabilize the situation, prevent another collapse and stretching of one of the fifth waves. There is such an opportunity, but its implementation is still in question – the continuation of offensive actions on the currency will have a negative impact, to put it mildly.

It is interesting that Ukraine has already practically delivered a cyclical wave “IV” from the collapse of the Russian Empire, but Russia itself will only have to do the same in the next 5-10 years. What happens at the end of cycles, the Russians now clearly see in the media. This is the possible future of Russia too: the rise of crime, civil war, the collapse of the federation OR nationalization and expropriation of private property. Not tomorrow, and not even in months. You have a few more years to prepare.

P.S. Let me remind you that my blog is just drafts of a fantastic work :)

And no, this forecast is not about the beginning of a full-scale or civil war on the territory of Russia. This is a forecast about the curtailment of the military conflict, about the agreement between the elites. After all, military arguments end on both sides. Domestic and foreign elites are already discussing the likelihood and consequences of the use of tactical nuclear weapons and strategic nuclear weapons, which means this will not happen – the sentiment, so to speak, is critical and reversal.

The hypothesis of July 10, 2019 has already fully come true (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/730). The hryvnia is updated here on the 10th of almost every month, which excludes the possibility of falsifying the result, here is the extreme forecast in which what is happening now was predicted (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3035).

Now the time has almost come for a bad world, no matter how anyone would like the opposite. Further escalation is practically impossible, so I bet on the status quo +/- on the front line, on the agreement on ceasefire in Istanbul, and their periodic sabotage, by analogy with the Minsk agreements. And so on until the next war. The government of the Russian Federation will only have to rewrite the constitution once again, but this is business as usual for them.

As I have indicated many times before, including before the start of the so-called special millitary actions, the hryvnia has no bottom (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/3008). You can set minimum targets and critical levels. You can take a look at the timeline of analytics that comes out here on the 10th of almost every month to see how the Elliott Wave Principle works.

What about a forecast for the dollar, while it inexorably comes true, the hryvnia goes to ATH (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2764). But to the ruble, unfortunately for Ukraine, the pair failed to put an upward impulse. This means that the hryvnia will also update its historical minimum against the ruble, which means that it will feel better in the Russian Federation at this time than in Ukraine. That is, there is no talk of any quick solution to the conflict or restoration of the infrastructure.

Earlier it seemed to me that Ukraine would emerge from the crisis faster than Russia, but alas. It seems that only here now we are together and united…

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1H

If the ruble, together with Russia, chose the path of horror without end, then the hryvnia, together with Ukraine, decided to immediately experience endless horror in order to end it as quickly as possible. Thus, out of the mist of a special operation, a completely new Ukraine will emerge, ready for decades or even a century of economic growth. It remains to be patient a little, but for now, on a short horizon, the horror will only grow…

Now the final wave 5 is developing inside (5) historical trend [C] of II / IV , this cycle was started during the collapse of the Russian Empire. From the point of view of socionomics, the scale and nature of the events taking place now are connected with this – it is necessary to renew the extreme points of the wave [A] in the minds of the masses, that is to relive the horror of the First World War and the civil war with renewed vigor.

#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1D But regardless of the outcome of this horror (armed conflict), after the current events, Ukraine will finally build statehood. The only question is to what extent?..

As for the Russian ruble, so far we don’t even smell like a final – soon (or already) only the wave 1 or 3 in the same (5) will be set. This means that from the point of view of public sentiment, after the end of the hot phase, life in the Russian Federation will become worse and harder for at least the next 5 years, until our country also puts the wave (5) of [C] of II / IV after Ukraine.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1D

The forecast for the Ukrainian hryvnia continues to come true, but this does not make me happy – the threat of war in general can please few sane people. And this, judging by the markup of the hryvnia and the dollar/ruble, is coming. Together we hope that the brakes on politicians will work at a crucial moment – all the capital is in countries that will impose sanctions on it. And children live there. And the wounded and the dead will definitely not benefit the rating – the USSR collapsed largely due to the Afghan adventure.

#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1D, 4H The elite in the Russian Federation will not be able to rule like Stalin and live like Abramovich in the event of further escalation. And therefore, I don’t see a single argument for a military scenario, but the EWP makes me label the hryvnia and ruble up to historical values​​…

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1D, 4H

The plan is coming true, after the wave [e] of triangle 4 the hryvnia has depreciated by 5%, and this is just the beginning (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2517). I set my minimum target at 39.

It’s hard to say in terms of timing, first you need to break through the end of the wave [d], then the calculation will be fully confirmed, and the count will go on for weeks or days. Until then, variants within the wave [e] are possible, I am not sure of its completion.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1D

The minimum target for the end of the wave [e] of triangle 4 is fulfilled (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2386). This is the wave [e] completes the entire triangle, if anyone did not understand. This means that the countdown to new historical highs has been launched, and now it is a question of the coming months.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1D

I decided to revise my local view due to the fact that an impulse (a) of [e] has formed downward (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2349). Otherwise, no changes. I am waiting for some significant movement up in the autumn.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1D

We have a similar sentiment, the carrier of which is the waves on the chart, so we move almost simultaneously and according to the plan (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2297). We expect an upward breakdown of the green channel, its upper border, to confirm the hypothesis.

I think that in August-September something interesting may begin… And not very good, which will lead to Prechter Point for post-Soviet currencies.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1H

A month ago, I assumed the further development of wave [ii] in the form of a single zigzag and this is happened (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2257). Now this zigzag is supposedly completed, the price has reached 62% red fibo and completely visually completed the structure of the zigzag.

If this pair could be traded somewhere from Russia, then I would put a buy-stop on the breakdown of the green correction channel upward with a stop-loss around the current price. But I do not know where to trade this, just as an analyst I recommend to the Ukranian people to get rid of the national currency in favor of the euro.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 4H

No major changes since last update (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2205). Replaced the double zigzag in the wave [ii] at the completion stage with the usual single zigzag at the development stage.

While the US dollar is falling to everything because of the frantic policy of the Fed and endless QEs, it will be difficult for our developing currencies to devalue. We are following the S&P500, as soon as a significant downward movement begins there, it will immediately be necessary to return to a margin position against post-Soviet currencies.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 4H

A striking event, the beginning of the next phase of the military conflict, was predicted in advance according to the Elliott Wave Principle (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2122 ). And now is the time for the worst to happen, unfortunately. Prechter Point (the most powerful part of the movement) will happen in the coming months. Minimum targets for the upcoming phase of devaluation in the wave [iii] are set at 32 hryvnia per dollar.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 4H

An ending diagonal similar to the ruble is likely in the last phase of strengthening within the wave [ii] on the Ukrainian hryvnia. Otherwise, the forecast and recommendations are unchanged (https://t.me/eightyninewaves/2056). Waves for the continuation of the collapse (devaluation) in the very near future.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1H

Aggressive involves entering at red fibo levels with a stop near the red level. Conservative – an entry on the breakdown of the green descending channel, its upper border, upwards with a stop-loss in the area of ​​the current price values.

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#UAH #USDUAH TF: 1H